美元贬值赖帐估算，我们每年至少损失1万亿元

美元贬值赖帐估算，我们每年至少损失1万亿元　　

通常根据美国物价指数计算通货膨胀率，从而估算美元购买力变化。根据购买力变化，可以估算我们储存2万亿美元的损失。美国官方根据市场调查的物价数据发布物价指数（附录3），计算通货膨胀率。美国官方调查物价指数，是通过个人和电话调查87个地区5万个房屋，23000个商店的市场物价数据，加上人口权重计算得到的物价指数，主要反应老百姓在美国居住生活的物价变化。二战后，美国通货膨胀率最高是1982年，达到13％，最近几年约3％。但是，我们使用美元购买的商品，明显与居民不同。　　

以美元指数来反应我们储存的美元购买力，比美国通货膨胀率要好一些，因为这个指数反应了美元在国际贸易方面的购买力变化。美元指数是通过美元与6种国际主要货币的汇率的几何加权平均值。这6种货币是欧元、日元、英镑、加拿大元、瑞典克郎、瑞士法郎，其中欧元的权重最大，高达57.6%。现代西方国家通常都存在通货膨胀，由于各国通货膨胀率通常都大于0，美元购买力下降幅度应大于美元指数下降的幅度。根据程实博士2008年3月14日发表在北京青年报上文章，美元指数从2001年7月6日的121.02到2008年3月7日的72.462，7年不到美元贬值了40％”，相当于美元平均每年至少贬值8%以上。　　

准确反映我国储存的美元购买力变化应是中国海关进口商品价格变化。我们国家似乎才开始做，只有2006年以后的进口商品价格指数数据，参见：　　

http://www.customs.gov.cn/Portals/0/jcyj/12月份我国进口商品价格大幅下跌.doc　　

从这个资料来看，在金融危机之前，我们的美元购买力年下降率达到了8％水平。但是，这两年我们贸易顺差，我们使用的美元是当时获得的，我们储存的美元的购买力，需要到贸易逆差，我们实际使用以前的美元进口商品时，其价格与我们获得美元时进口商品价格比较，才能得到实际结果。如果一直贸易顺差，没有机会使用美元，我们储存的美元等同废纸。　　

      我们储存2万亿美元，按照美元购买力下降8％计算，等于每年损失1600亿美元，按照现在的1美元兑人民币6.9元汇率计算，超过1万亿人民币。政府将事业单位人员退休推向市场，目的仅仅是为了减少支出几百亿的退休金，却不去改变愚蠢的政策，储存2万亿美元外汇储备，免费每年送给美国人1万亿人民币。此外，还继续增加美元，等于送给美国人更多的财富。

　 这里仅计算了美元贬值损失，还有很多其他损失，参见：http://www.chinavalue.net/Article/Archive/2006/11/14/48633.html

      如何使用美元减少外汇储备，请参见：给温总理建议，我们应如何使用外汇 　　

http://www.sciencenet.cn/m/user_content.aspx?id=216287　　

附录　　

1 美国准备赖帐了，中国会损失1万亿美元？http://www.sciencenet.cn/m/user_content.aspx?id=209950　　

2林毅夫，应为中国外汇损失负责的经济学家 http://www.sciencenet.cn/m/user_content.aspx?id=224073　　

3 中国政府应利用经济危机赚取1万亿美元 http://www.sciencenet.cn/m/user_content.aspx?id=222498　　

4：见http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_03182009.htm　　

Brief Explanation of the CPI

      The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices over time of goods and services purchased by households.  The

 Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups:  (1) the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which covers

 households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise

 approximately 32 percent of the total population and (2) the CPI for All

 Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI- U), which cover approximately 87 percent of the total population and include in addition to wage earners and clerical worker households, groups such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-

 employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not in the labor force.

      The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels,

 transportation fares, charges for doctors" and dentists" services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living.

 Prices are collected in 87 urban areas across the country from about

 50,000 housing units and approximately 23,000 retail establishments-

 department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other

 types of stores and service establishments.  All taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of items are included in the index.  Prices of fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 87 locations. Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month in  the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas . Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal visits or  telephone calls of the Bureau"s trained representatives.

      In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each  location are averaged together with weights, which represent their

 importance in the spending of the appropriate population group.  Local

 data are then combined to obtain a 　　U.S.　　 city average.  For the CPI-U and

 CPI-W separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region of

 the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size

 classes, and for 27 local areas.  Area indexes do not measure differences

 in the level of prices among cities; they only measure the average change

 in prices for each area since the base period.  For the C-CPI-U data are

 issued only at the national level.  It is important to note that the CPI-U

 and CPI-W are considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in  preliminary form and subject to two annual revisions.

      The index measures price change from a designed reference date.  For  the CPI-U and the CPI-W the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100.0. The  reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100.

 An increase of 16.5 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown

 as 116.5.  This change can also be expressed in dollars as follows:  the

 price of a base period market basket of goods and services in the CPI has  risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65.

      For further details visit the CPI home page on the Internet at

 http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ or contact our CPI Information and Analysis

 Section on (202) 691-7000.

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